No country that sinks to a 1.5 fertility rate for more than a few years has ever recovered.
By Susan Yoshihara, Ph.D.
NEW YORK, NY, June 26, 2008 (C-FAM.org) – A recent study by a prestigious national security think tank warns that “rapid and extreme” demographic change due to falling birth rates in the industrialized world may increase security risks in the coming decades.
The study also warns that such demographic changes could undermine the “ability of the U.S. and its allies to maintain global and national security.” The report says the world is irreversibly headed for “demographic transformation of historic and unprecedented dimensions” that will not be corrected “in our lifetime.”
Meant by its authors as a “wake up call”, “The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century” was published by the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic & International Studies. The report argues that the influence of the developed world as a whole will contract as its workforces and economies shrink. Among developed states, however, the influence of the United States will increase because of relatively robust fertility. At the same time, the role of “global governance” through the United Nations and other international institutions may decline as the crisis promotes the role of the sovereign state in addressing the consequences of demographic collapse.
Two miscalculations by demographers are uncovered in the report: that mortality and aging would plateau, and that fertility rates would stabilize at replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Neither happened, and the result is what the authors call a “low fertility trap.”
http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2008/jun/08062613.html
Tags: abortion, condoms, contraception, death, decline, demographic, demographic winter, demography, fertility, fertility decline, global security crisis, low birth rate, procreation, sex, winter
June 28, 2008 at 11:15 am
[...] Estudos recentes revelam que a partir do momento em que uma sociedade passa a ter uma taxa de natalidade de menos de 1,5 crianças por mulher (Portugal tem uma taxa de 1,5), o definhamento da sociedade é inevitável. Apesar da miopia do Lula, a maioria dos políticos brasileiros já percebeu que o Brasil não poderá ser grande no futuro com a população do Canadá, que é um país enorme e somente com 30 milhões de habitantes e uma taxa de 1,5 nascituros por mulher, com tendência a baixar devido à liberalização do aborto e apesar das condições excepcionais, existentes nesse país, de apoio à maternidade. O Brasil tem 191 milhões de habitantes com uma taxa de fertilidade de 1,86 nascituros por mulher. [...]